India is set to ship more coffee even as it grows slightly less, with a new government report forecasting exports will edge up to 6.22 million 60‑kilogram bags in the 2026/27 marketing year while total production dips 4.5% to 6.14 million bags. The outlook from USDA Foreign Agricultural Service underscores how robusta and soluble coffee are increasingly driving India’s role in the global market despite mounting pressure on arabica.
According to the May 12 “India: Coffee Annual” GAIN report, linked by Daily Coffee News, India’s MY 2026/27 production is expected to reach 1.56 million bags of arabica and 4.58 million bags of robusta. The same report projects exports of 3.68 million bags of green coffee and 2.53 million bags of soluble, with domestic consumption at 1.58 million bags and soluble coffee accounting for 73% of that use.
The export push is already visible in current‑year figures. India’s coffee shipments in January–April 2026 reached 174,000 tonnes, up 26.6% year on year, according to The Hindu BusinessLine. Robusta exports surged 36% to 85,168 tonnes, while arabica exports fell 58% to 30,589 tonnes. BusinessLine reported that instant coffee shipments totaled 20,332 tonnes, with an additional 38,169 tonnes of instant coffee re‑exports over the same period.
Yield data in the USDA outlook highlights the strain on arabica. FAS Mumbai forecasts arabica yields will fall 8% year on year to 452 kilograms per hectare in MY 2026/27, compared with a 2% decline to 1,239 kilograms per hectare for robusta. The report, as summarized by Daily Coffee News, attributes arabica’s difficulties to excessive early‑year rain followed by a prolonged dry spell and high temperatures, aging trees, white stem borer infestation and reduced agricultural inputs.
Those conditions sit atop a sector dominated by small farms. Daily Coffee News, citing USDA and industry data, notes that India has roughly 250,000 coffee growers and that 98% of them cultivate less than 10 hectares. Labor accounts for around 70% of production costs, making changes in yields and farmgate prices significant for rural livelihoods.
Price signals around the new marketing year are mixed. USDA FAS reports that since October 2025 farmgate prices in India have fallen 16% for arabica and 11% for robusta, even as Indian coffee continues to trade at a premium to Vietnam and Indonesia. A December 2025 semi‑annual update from USDA FAS recorded that, over the prior year, domestic arabica parchment prices had surged 58% and robusta cherry 10%, while the International Coffee Organization’s composite indicator declined 3%, prompting European buyers to shorten contracts from 12 months to three or four months in response to record‑high prices.
Global price movements add further pressure. Data from Vietnam’s coffee sector reported by DTiNews show London robusta futures dropping from about USD 4,100 per tonne in January 2026 to USD 3,300–3,500 per tonne in April, down 32% year on year, while New York arabica prices fell from 370 to 279–305 US cents per pound, a 14% decline. DTiNews also cites the Vietnam Coffee Cocoa Association (Vicofa) as saying that global coffee production for the 2025–2026 crop is expected to reach a record high, with an associated oversupply risk.
Despite the price slide, Indian export volumes reached a record 407,000 tonnes in the 2025–26 fiscal year, worth approximately €1.96 billion (USD 2.13 billion), according to an April analysis by Commodity‑board.com. That report notes that three multinational traders—Louis Dreyfus Company, Olam Agro and Neumann Kaffee Gruppe—purchase more than one‑third of India’s output and account for nearly half of its coffee exports.
India’s trade policy is increasingly geared toward value‑added coffee. Daily Coffee News reports that the India‑UK Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement (CETA) offers duty‑free access for roast‑and‑ground and instant coffee, while the India‑EFTA Trade and Economic Partnership Agreement (TEPA) provides zero‑duty access for similar products to Switzerland, Norway and Iceland. DevDiscourse notes that EFTA countries represent about 3% of global coffee imports, citing 2024 import values of USD 145 million for Switzerland, USD 27 million for Norway and USD 3 million for Iceland.
Against this backdrop, India’s commerce secretary Rajesh Agrawal has framed value addition as central to the sector’s future. Speaking at the inauguration of a Coffee Experience Zone on International Coffee Day, he told DevDiscourse, “India must not only export coffee but export a brand. By innovating and adding value, Indian coffee can take its rightful place among the finest in the world.”
