Brazil is heading into what multiple forecasts describe as one of its largest coffee harvests on record just as Colombia, the world’s other key arabica supplier, confronts a sharp production slump and falling farm incomes.
A nationwide survey of 758 Brazilian growers by Coffee Trading Academy (CTA) projects the country’s 2026/27 crop at 71.4 million 60‑kg bags, an 11.5% year‑on‑year increase, with arabica output alone forecast at 47.9 million bags, up 13.5% from the previous season, according to Comunicaffe (Reuters) and CoffeeTalk. Robusta (canephora) production is seen at 23.5 million bags, 7.6% higher year‑on‑year, the same sources reported.
Brazil’s official supply agency Conab offers a more conservative figure, estimating the 2026/27 crop at 66.2 million bags, a 17.1% increase, according to The Rio Times. CTA’s own outlook has also shifted over time, from an initial 73.7 million‑bag estimate in July 2025 to 69 million in November 2025 and then 71.4 million in April 2026, Comunicaffe reported.
Beyond the headline numbers, CTA’s survey found structural growth on the ground: CoffeeTalk reported that the total area under coffee cultivation in Brazil increased by 2.97% compared with the previous season, with arabica area expanding 2.7% and robusta 3.6%. The same survey noted that 63.5% of farmers said off‑season rainfall substantially benefitted their crops, while fertilizer application rose 5.4% compared with last season.
At the same time, Colombia has seen a steep contraction in output. The country’s production for January through April 2026 fell to 3.2 million bags from 4.5 million a year earlier, a 28.3% drop, according to figures from the Federación Nacional de Cafeteros (FNC) published by Infobae. FNC data cited by Infobae show Colombia’s rolling 12‑month production to April 2026 at 12.4 million bags, down from 14.9 million a year earlier, a decline of 17%.
Monthly figures highlight the same pattern. FNC numbers reported by La FM show coffee‑year production from October 2025 to March 2026 at 6.22 million bags, compared with 8.68 million in the prior coffee year. For January to March 2026 alone, production reached 2.51 million bags versus 3.78 million a year earlier, a 33.5% decline, La FM added. FNC data published by The Rio Times show that February 2026 output dropped 36% year‑on‑year to 869,000 bags, while January fell 34% to 893,000 bags.
Colombian exports have followed production down. FNC figures reported by Infobae show April 2026 exports at 682,000 bags, 15% below the 802,000 bags shipped in April 2025. Over the 12 months to April 2026, exports totaled 11.9 million bags, a 7% decline compared with the previous 12‑month period, the same report said. Earlier, The Rio Times noted that coffee‑year exports from October 2025 to February 2026 reached 5.06 million bags, 14% lower year‑on‑year.
While volumes have tightened, internal prices in Colombia have also fallen. Infobae, citing an analysis by the Asociación Nacional de Instituciones Financieras (Anif), reported that the internal coffee price in April 2026 stood at COP 2,229,900 per 125‑kg load, down 26.8% from a year earlier and marking a second consecutive month below COP 2.3 million. The Rio Times previously noted that farmgate prices peaked at COP 3.12 million per load in February 2025.
In comments carried by La FM, FNC general manager Germán Bahamón said that incessant rains had led to lower productivities and that, combined with depressed prices and high costs, they confirm that the 2026 coffee business in Colombia will be “muy exigente” for growers. In a separate interview with NacionPaisa, Bahamón stated that the appreciation of the Colombian peso over the past year meant that “each load of coffee has lost around COP 500,000 to 550,000” in income purely from the exchange‑rate effect, summarizing the situation as “the same coffee, with the same quality and the same effort, today pays half a million pesos less per load.”
On international markets, these divergent origin stories are unfolding against a backdrop of weakening futures prices. The Rio Times reported that arabica contracts on ICE peaked above $4.23 per pound in November 2025 but had retreated to around $2.80–$3.00 by early March 2026, falling roughly 18% in the first quarter; by mid‑May, prices were about $2.60 per pound, near their lowest level since November 2024. According to the same report, the World Bank expects arabica prices to decline by 13–15% in 2026, while Rabobank projects global coffee output at 180 million bags for the 2026/27 season.
Daily price moves have reflected the pressure. Comunicaffe reported that the July arabica contract on ICE closed unchanged at 290.70 US cents per pound on April 29, 2026, while the July robusta contract lost 1.1% to settle at $3,442 per tonne the same day. On May 18, Vietnam.vn noted that July 2026 arabica futures fell 1.29% to 256.75 US cents per pound and July robusta declined 1.75% to $3,306 per tonne, with selling pressure pushing arabica to a 1.5‑year low and robusta to a four‑week low.
In Brazil’s robusta sector, local price signals have been even more dramatic. Vietnam.vn, citing brokerage Carvalhaes, reported that Brazilian robusta prices have dropped from around 1,700 real per 60‑kg bag a year ago to about 880 real, roughly half the previous level, even as Brazilian farmers hold inventories despite the prospect of a record harvest.
Colombia’s domestic market, meanwhile, has remained relatively stable in volume terms, with La FM and The Rio Times both citing FNC data placing annual domestic consumption at around 2.3 million bags (2.28 million in the last 12 months), even as production and prices have moved sharply.
