Global coffee prices eased slightly on 8 June as markets continued to absorb forecasts for a record Brazilian harvest and growing expectations of a surplus in the 2026–27 crop year, trimming returns for producers from Brazil to Vietnam.
According to vietnam.vn, domestic coffee prices in Vietnam’s Central Highlands fell by 100 Vietnamese dong per kilogram on 8 June, bringing the average to 85,200 VND/kg, with key growing regions trading between 84,500 and 85,100 VND/kg and Đắk Lắk at the top of the range at 85,100 VND/kg. On the same day, July 2026 Robusta futures on the London exchange closed at $3,316 per ton, down $36 from the previous session, while July 2026 Arabica on the New York exchange slipped to 246.50 US cents per pound, a decline of 0.65 cents.
The softening comes as Brazil, the world’s largest coffee producer, heads toward what its national supply agency CONAB has described as a record crop. In its second official 2026 survey released on 21 May, CONAB estimated Brazil’s 2026 coffee harvest at 66.701 million 60‑kilogram bags, an 18% increase compared with the previous year and 5.7% above the country’s previous record of 63.08 million bags set in 2020.
This bullish production outlook is echoed, and in some cases amplified, by international forecasters. Cited by vietnam.vn, the Foreign Agricultural Service of the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA FAS) forecast that Brazil’s 2026–27 coffee production could reach 71.9 million bags, while Rabobank put its projection at 73.3 million bags, according to reporting in Fresh Cup. Trade house Comexim has projected a 71.1‑million‑bag crop and Hedgepoint Global Markets an even higher 75.8 million bags, as compiled in data reported by CropGPT and Brazilian industry media.
Surplus expectations are not limited to Brazil. Rabobank raised its forecast for the global Arabica surplus in 2026–27 to 9.5 million bags, up from 7 million bags in its previous report, according to vietnam.vn, while brokerage StoneX has projected a 10‑million‑bag global coffee surplus, described as the largest in six years in data cited by CropGPT. At the same time, ICE‑certified Arabica stocks dropped to 440,785 bags by late May 2026 from an April high of 585,621 bags, and ICE Robusta certified inventories fell to a two‑year low of 3,631 lots on 15 May, according to figures compiled by CropGPT.
Market analysts in Brazil have also highlighted the regional distribution of the anticipated harvest. As reported by Global Coffee Report, CONAB projects Minas Gerais, Brazil’s largest coffee‑growing state, to harvest 33.4 million bags in 2026, a 29.8% increase over the previous season, while Espírito Santo is projected at 18 million bags, up 3%. In the same survey, CONAB noted that total coffee area in Brazil had reached 2.34 million hectares, with productivity recovering to 34.4 bags per hectare, a 13% gain.
Not all voices in Brazil are embracing the most aggressive record‑crop narratives. Speaking to Fresh Cup ahead of the main harvest, Juliana Paulino, president of the Coffee Growers Association in Southwestern Minas Gerais, commented, “The harvest will be good. It will not be bigger than in 2020, but it will be good,” underscoring a more cautious sentiment among some producers in a key Arabica region.
In Vietnam, higher exports suggest that Robusta supplies have been loosening even as farmgate prices have come off recent highs. Vietnam.vn reported that the country exported 922,000 tons of coffee in the first five months of 2026, a 7.9% increase compared with the same period a year earlier, and that total production in the 2025–26 crop year is projected to rise by 6% to 1.76 million tons, equivalent to 29.4 million bags.
Traders quoted by Reuters and cited by vietnam.vn said that record‑breaking coffee harvesting in Brazil continues to put pressure on prices, while noting that trading activity in Vietnam has remained relatively quiet because local farmers are holding onto stocks at current price levels and that demand has been surging in Indonesia as growers there anticipate a bumper crop in July 2026.
Additional pressure on the Vietnamese coffee sector has come alongside a broader sell‑off in domestic financial markets. On 8 June, the VN‑Index benchmark of the Ho Chi Minh City stock exchange fell by more than 48 points to drop below the 1,800‑point mark, with strong selling and foreign investors returning to net selling positions, according to vietnam.vn.
Price behavior over the past two months suggests that the adjustment is uneven across different segments of the coffee complex. The Center for Applied Economic Research (CEPEA) reported that Arabica and Robusta prices moved in opposite directions between April and May 2026, with Arabica prices falling sharply to deliver the lowest average monthly level since October 2024, according to analysis cited by vietnam.vn.
Signals from physical and financial markets will be watched closely by producers and buyers as Brazil’s harvest, which industry reports say began in April, continues to gain momentum through June and July under predominantly dry and warm conditions, according to crop‑monitoring updates cited in data compiled by CropGPT.
