Brazil’s new coffee harvest is under way with early cherry picking and reports of strong yields, even as major forecasters disagree by nearly 10 million bags on how large the 2026/27 crop will be.
In its latest update, trading house Sucafina said cherry is already being harvested in the Matas de Minas region and expects 2% of the Arabica harvest to be completed by the end of April 2026, with picking running through September 2026 and the Arabica harvest projected to be 7% larger than last year (Sucafina – “Brazil Arabica Harvest Update”).
At the national level, Brazil’s food-supply agency Conab projects a total 2026 crop of 66.2 million bags, calling it an all-time high (Valor International – “Brazil’s coffee harvest starts with strong yields, larger beans”). The same report notes that unnamed consultancies estimate a record 75 million 60‑kilo bags for 2026, highlighting a wide gap between official and private projections.
Internationally, several market analysts lean toward the upper end of that range. Barchart reports that Coffee Trading Academy projects Brazil’s 2026/27 harvest at 71.4 million bags, while Marex Group Plc forecasts a record 75.9 million bags and StoneX estimates 75.3 million bags. In a separate update for APAC clients, Sucafina forecasts Brazil’s 2026/27 total coffee crop at 75.4 million bags, up 15.5% year on year, with Arabica production at 49.4 million bags and Robusta at 26 million bags (Sucafina – “Brazil 2026/27 Harvest Update”).
Grower and extension groups on the ground also describe a strong season, while tempering the highest numbers. In Minas Gerais, state technical coordinator Sérgio Mário Regina of Emater‑MG said, “I have never seen the crop in such good condition. The beans are developing well and have good size. If there are no frost events, especially in southern Minas and the Cerrado, we will have a really strong harvest” (Valor International).
In the same article, Sincal director Marcelo Paterno stated that “if the weather remains favorable, the crop could perhaps reach 70 million bags, because bean filling is strong, with larger beans, which improves the yield per bag. But among producers, expectations are still for a harvest below that level” (Valor International). Valor International reported that growers expect output to remain below the 2020 peak of 63.08 million bags, despite good conditions.
Regional leaders in Minas Gerais echo this cautious optimism. Juliana Paulino, president of the Coffee Growers Association in southwestern Minas, said there was some incidence of brown eye‑spot disease “in only a few areas” and concluded, “The harvest will be good. It will not be bigger than in 2020, but it will be good” (Valor International).
From the Cerrado Mineiro region, Cerrado Coffee Growers Federation president Gláucio de Castro observed that “plants are producing heavier fruit with thinner skin, improving yield,” while Expocacer chief executive Simão Pedro de Lima described expected productivity as “good” but said it “will not match the 2020 crop, when the Cerrado produced 7.7 million bags. We are talking about something closer to 7 million bags” (Valor International).
Despite strong crop assessments, the harvest is not advancing uniformly. The research center Cepea reports that Arabica harvest remains slow across most Brazilian regions, with fieldwork gaining momentum primarily in Zona da Mata, Minas Gerais; it expects the harvest pace to pick up from the second half of May onward and notes that activities in Cerrado Mineiro are expected to begin in late May (Cepea – “Arabica coffee harvest remains slow, says Cepea”).
Market participants are already reacting to the higher-end forecasts. Barchart reports that Arabica coffee prices fell as traders “priced in expectations of a bumper Brazil coffee crop,” and cites a StoneX projection of a 2026 global coffee surplus of 10 million bags, compared with 1.8 million in 2025, as well as a USDA Foreign Agricultural Service estimate of world coffee production at 178.848 million bags in 2025/26, up 2% year on year (Barchart – “Arabica Coffee Retreats on Expectations of a Bumper Brazil Coffee Crop”).
Alongside volume expectations, sustainability‑verified supply is expanding. Sucafina states that available IMPACT‑verified coffees from Brazil will reach 4.22 million bags and notes that IMPACT audits are expected in June 2026 for Conilon and July 2026 for Arabica, with additional IMPACT‑verified producers to be added in South Minas, Cerrado and Mogiana during 2026 (Sucafina – “Brazil Arabica Harvest Update”).
