Brazil’s next coffee harvest is already sparking debate months before the first cherries are picked, with official and private forecasts for the 2026/27 crop ranging from 66.2 million to almost 76 million 60‑kg bags. The unusually wide spread between estimates for the world’s largest producer is drawing attention from traders and roasters who rely on Brazil as a cornerstone of global supply.
In its third farmer survey, released on 29 April, Coffee Trading Academy (CTA) projected Brazil’s 2026/27 crop at 71.4 million bags, an 11.5% increase from the previous season and a record volume, according to a report from Reuters via KELO-AM. CTA’s survey, which gathered responses from 758 farmers, also pointed to expected arabica production of 47.9 million bags, up 13.5% year-on-year, and robusta output of 23.5 million bags, up 7.6%.
Brazil’s official crop forecaster, CONAB, offered a lower view earlier in the year. Its first 2026 survey, published on 5 February, projected a record but more conservative 66.2 million bags, according to Valor International. While CONAB acknowledged the potential for a large harvest, the figure sits well below CTA’s number and even further under the highest private estimates.
Several international trading houses see an even bigger crop than CTA. Rio Times reported that StoneX expects 75.3 million bags, Marex Group forecasts 75.9 million bags, and Hedgepoint Global Markets projects 75.8 million bags, breaking its estimate into 50.2 million arabica and 25.6 million robusta. Placed side by side, CONAB’s 66.2 million, CTA’s 71.4 million and the private range near 75.3–75.9 million illustrate a rare, multi‑million‑bag disagreement over the same crop year.
CTA’s latest survey also sheds light on what farmers themselves are reporting from the field. Reuters via KELO-AM noted that 63.5% of farmers said off‑season rain had a major positive impact, and total coffee acreage expanded 2.97% compared with the previous season, with arabica area up 2.7% and robusta up 3.6%. The same report said fertilizer application rose 5.4% after elevated coffee prices in the prior season allowed producers to maintain input use.
The diverging production numbers are emerging against the backdrop of volatile but resilient futures prices. Valor International reported that ICE arabica futures for March delivery slipped by 0.08% to $3.0840 per pound on 5 February, immediately after CONAB’s announcement. By contrast, on the day CTA’s higher figure was published, the ICE Arabica July 2026 contract closed unchanged at 290.70 cents per pound, while London robusta July futures fell 1.1% to $3,442, according to Comunicaffe.
Further market signals highlight mixed sentiment. Rio Times reported that ICE arabica inventories reached a six‑month high of 585,621 bags in mid‑March 2026, while robusta inventories fell to a two‑month low of 4,257 lots. The same article described farmer withholding behavior in Brazil as creating a “classic value trap,” with producers holding back beans despite what it called record supply, contributing to a short‑term squeeze.
CTA’s own projections have shifted over time. Reuters via KELO-AM noted that the group’s earlier surveys pegged the 2026/27 crop at 73.7 million bags in July 2025 and 69 million bags in November 2025 before settling at 71.4 million in the April 2026 release. Brazil’s 2026/27 coffee crop officially starts in July 2026, according to Reuters via KELO-AM, and the harvest typically runs from May through September, Rio Times reported.
