Indonesia is expected to harvest 11.38 million 60-kilogram bags of green coffee in marketing year (MY) 2026/27, an 8% decline from the previous season that will cut exports and reduce its weight in the global Robusta trade, according to a new forecast from the United States Department of Agriculture’s Foreign Agricultural Service (Daily Coffee News).
Daily Coffee News reports that the USDA FAS Jakarta office projects Indonesia’s Robusta output at 10 million bags in 2026/27, down 1 million bags from MY 2025/26, while Arabica production is forecast to edge up to 1.38 million bags from a revised 1.37 million bags. Green coffee exports are forecast to fall 11% to 7 million bags, compared with 7.84 million bags in 2025/26, and total exports of green, soluble, and roasted coffee are expected to reach 8.05 million bags, down from 8.84 million bags.
The new outlook follows a period of sharp swings. A semi-annual report from USDA FAS (ID2025-0039), cited by Specialty Coffee Indonesia, revised Indonesia’s MY 2025/26 production up to 12.5 million bags from an earlier 11.3 million, citing improved yields, favorable weather, and increased inputs. Before that, severe El Niño-related drought in MY 2023/24 cut Indonesian production to about 8.2 million bags, a 23% decline, according to Specialty Coffee Indonesia.
Weather remains a central variable. Daily Coffee News and RFD-TV both note that Tropical Storm Sinyar in November 2025 caused flooding and landslides in Aceh and North Sumatra that damaged Arabica plantations, prompting USDA FAS to revise MY 2025/26 Arabica production down to 1.37 million bags. The same reports state that some of the affected plantations may need two to three years to recover. Indonesia’s meteorological agency BMKG has projected a drier and longer 2026 dry season, driven by a weak El Niño expected to strengthen later in the year, according to Daily Coffee News.
The export slowdown comes even as Indonesia’s domestic coffee consumption continues to rise. USDA FAS Jakarta forecasts 2026/27 domestic use at 4.83 million bags, up slightly from 4.81 million bags, with 3.28 million bags of roasted-and-ground coffee and 1.55 million bags of soluble coffee, Daily Coffee News reports. Ending stocks are projected at 671,000 bags, an 11% decrease from the previous season.
Indonesia remains structurally significant in global supply. A May 2026 USDA FAS circular on world coffee trade notes that the country’s coffee area has held steady at about 1.2 million hectares for the past decade, with Sumatra accounting for around 75% of production and more than 95% of growers farming plots averaging one hectare. RFD-TV reports that the United States is among Indonesia’s top five coffee markets, and that weather-related losses in Indonesia could tighten global Robusta supplies and keep attention on availability, shipping costs, and export competition.
At the same time, Indonesia’s relative position among producing countries is shifting. Food Business Middle East & Africa reports that Ethiopia is projected to overtake Indonesia as the world’s fourth-largest coffee producer in MY 2026/27, with an expected 12.1 million bags compared with Indonesia’s 11.38 million bags as outlined in the USDA FAS Jakarta forecast. On the global level, a May 2026 USDA FAS circular forecasts record world coffee production of 178.8 million bags for 2025/26, while commodities firm StoneX projects 182.5 million bags for 2026, indicating that overall supply is rebuilding from historically tight levels.
Looking ahead on data, the next update to the official global balance sheet is scheduled for July 22, 2026, when USDA FAS plans to release its next Coffee: World Markets and Trade report, according to the May 2026 circular.
