Robusta coffee prices have plunged even as global supplies hit record levels. The world’s coffee production is set to reach 178.7 million bags in 2025/26—up 4.3 million from last year—as Vietnam, Indonesia, and Ethiopia enhance output. The USDA forecasts Honduras’ 2025-26 coffee output will jump 5.1% year-on-year to 5.8 million bags, adding to the global surplus. Vietnam alone expects to produce 31 million bags, with nearly 95% being Robusta. This supply surge, driven by better weather and farmer investments, has collided with weakening demand, triggering a sharp price correction.
Stockpiles of Robusta hit 4,890 lots on ICE markets in July, the highest in 7-12 months. Arabica inventories also grew, signaling a global coffee surplus. After a 90% price jump over two years, Robusta futures dropped over 2% last month, reflecting oversupply fears.
Global coffee surplus fears mount as Robusta stockpiles hit 7-12 month highs, dragging futures down 2% post-90% rally.
Vietnam and Indonesia remain key players in the Robusta boom. Both countries benefited from stable growing areas and improved farming techniques. Vietnam’s exports are projected to rise by 1.6 million bags to 24.6 million, feeding Europe and North America’s appetite for cheaper beans. Specialty coffee shops are also adapting to consumer preferences amidst these market shifts.
But record supplies aren’t matching buyer needs. Global consumption is forecast at 169.4 million bags—9 million below production—leaving roasters with overflowing stocks. Brazil’s coffee output surged 10% in 2023, driven by climate-resilient cultivars and cost reductions, further tilting markets toward oversupply. New U.S. import tariffs, including a 10% baseline rate, could also squeeze demand by raising costs for companies like Starbucks. Analysts warn higher retail prices might turn budget-conscious consumers away, slowing growth further.
The market’s long-term outlook shows contradictions. While the global coffee industry is valued at $58.53 billion today and could hit $90 billion by 2032, current trends favor buyers over growers. Asia-Pacific demand is rising fast, but Europe still holds 45% of the market.
Brazil’s climate-hardy Conilon robusta adds competitive pressure, with its 2025 crop up 7.3%. Yet even as Robusta slumps, cocoa prices defy logic by climbing despite similar supply trends. Cocoa’s rally, fueled by climate risks and tight stockpiles elsewhere, highlights how agricultural markets can split under uneven pressures—leaving coffee farmers grappling with a surplus that shows no quick fix.
