Global coffee markets are swinging, in Rabobank’s words, “from tight to light” as a string of major forecasts point to a sizeable surplus in 2026/27 led by larger Brazilian harvests, even while exchange inventories remain at multi‑year lows and prices continue to slide.
In its Q2 2026 Coffee Outlook released 4 July from Utrecht, Rabobank projected a global coffee surplus of between 7 million and 10 million bags in the 2026/27 cycle, with total production around 180 million bags, according to a summary carried by foodbusinessmea.com. The bank raised its projection for the 2026/27 arabica surplus to 9.5 million bags, reported finance.yahoo.com, signalling a marked shift from the tight balances of recent years.
Other forecasters cited by finance.yahoo.com, StoneX and Marex Group Plc echo the move into surplus. StoneX estimates global coffee production at 182.5 million bags in 2026 against consumption of 172.5 million bags, implying a surplus of 10 million bags and revising its 2025 surplus up to 1.8 million bags from a previous 400,000 bags. USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS), in a December 2025 note reported by finance.yahoo.com, also projected world output rising 2.0% year-on-year to 178.848 million bags in 2025/26.
The centre of this new phase is Brazil. USDA FAS forecast a record 2026/27 Brazilian crop of 71.9 million bags, up 14% year-on-year, in a June 3 report highlighted by finance.yahoo.com. Rabobank’s own figure is 73.3 million bags for 2026/27, split between 48.7 million bags of arabica and 24.6 million bags of conilon, according to tridge.com. Other institutions compiled in finance.yahoo.com and dailycoffeenews.com place 2026/27 Brazilian output between 66.2 million bags and 75.9 million bags, with Brazil’s crop agency Conab at 66.7 million, statistics agency IBGE at 65.1 million, and private groups Marex, Sucafina, Coffee Trading Academy and StoneX clustering in the low‑ to mid‑70‑million‑bag range.
This supply shift comes as prices have already weakened. Arabica nearest‑month futures fell to a 19‑month low on 9 June 2026 and robusta to a two‑month low on the same day, according to price data from royaltycoffees.com. The same report noted that September arabica futures (KCU26) were down 0.73% and July robusta (RMN26) down 1.76% on 22 June. In Brazil, average April 2026 farm‑gate prices dropped 28% year-on-year for arabica to BRL 1,811.87 per 60‑kg bag and 46% for robusta to BRL 917.05, according to dailycoffeenews.com.
Yet physical coffee stocks remain lean. ICE‑certified arabica inventories slipped to a 2.25‑year low of 394,267 bags in the week of 22 June, royaltycoffees.com reported, while robusta inventories on ICE fell to a two‑year low of 3,631 lots on 15 May before recovering modestly to 4,032 lots by 22 June. The International Coffee Organization put global coffee exports in the 2025/26 marketing year at 138.658 million bags, down 0.3% year-on-year, according to royaltycoffees.com, underlining that the move into surplus starts from a relatively tight base.
National stock figures tell a similar story. USDA FAS, via dailycoffeenews.com, estimated Brazil’s ending stocks at 3.895 million bags in 2025/26 and projected they will rise to 4.425 million bags in 2026/27 as the larger crop comes in. StoneX went further, stating on stonex.com that Brazilian coffee stocks could climb above 5 million bags after the 2026 harvest, even as it cautioned that low global stock buffers keep the market “highly sensitive to origin disruptions.”
Other origins are adding to the more comfortable balance. Vietnam’s coffee exports reached 1.58 million metric tons in 2025, up 17.5% year-on-year, and rose 7.9% year-on-year to 922,000 metric tons in the first five months of 2026, royaltycoffees.com reported, with foodbusinessmea.com noting that January 2026 shipments alone jumped 38.3% year-on-year. USDA FAS also projected Vietnam’s 2025/26 production at 30.8 million bags, up 6.2% year-on-year, according to finance.yahoo.com.
Even as it outlines a 7–10‑million‑bag surplus, Rabobank does not see an extended collapse in prices. The bank told foodbusinessmea.com that, despite the large surplus forecast, it does not expect a prolonged price slump and judged that the recent sell‑off may have moved beyond fundamentals, leaving room for short‑term corrections as importing countries begin rebuilding depleted inventories.
StoneX, for its part, described the 2026 balance as “more comfortable” on stonex.com, while stressing that low stock buffers and the concentration of supply growth in Brazil mean the market’s new “light” phase still hinges on how smoothly those larger crops move from origin to roaster.
