Vietnam and Brazil, the world’s two largest coffee exporters, are both moving toward larger shipments in 2026, with fresh data showing Vietnam’s exports up in the first five months of the year and multiple surveys pointing to a potentially record Brazilian crop starting in July.
On 3 June, Vietnam’s General Statistics Office reported that coffee exports reached 928,000 metric tons between January and May 2026, an 8% increase compared with the same period a year earlier, according to Reuters via TradingView News. The figures reinforce Vietnam’s position as a major robusta supplier at a moment when global buyers are closely watching supply from both sides of the Atlantic.
Vietnam’s overall export performance has been strong since last year. VietNamNet News reported that the country exported nearly 1.6 million tons of coffee in 2025, earning a record US$8.92 billion. That outlet said export volume rose 18.3% year on year, with export value climbing 58.8% over the same period, and noted that processed coffee exports alone reached US$1.78 billion, also a record.
At the farm level, Vietnam’s coffee-growing area is around 710,000 hectares, according to a March 2026 report from Helena Coffee Vietnam, which also cited January 2026 exports at more than 224,000 tons. Helena Coffee Vietnam reported that those January shipments generated about US$1.08 billion at an average export price of US$4,820 per ton.
While Vietnam’s export surge continues, attention in the global market is also fixed on the size of Brazil’s new harvest. A 29 April survey by Reuters via KELO-AM, conducted by Coffee Trading Academy (CTA), estimated Brazil’s 2026/27 coffee crop at 71.4 million 60‑kg bags, 11.5% larger than the previous season and the biggest crop ever in that series.
Within that CTA estimate, arabica production was projected at 47.9 million bags, up 13.5% from the prior year, and robusta output at 23.5 million bags, 7.6% higher, Reuters via KELO-AM reported. The same survey found that Brazil’s total coffee acreage expanded 2.97% year on year, with arabica area up 2.7% and robusta area up 3.6%, and that 63.5% of farmers surveyed said off-season rain had a major positive impact on their crops. CTA also reported a 5.4% increase in fertilizer application compared with the previous season.
Other institutions have published different numbers for the same Brazilian crop. Brazil’s national supply company CONAB forecast the 2026/27 harvest at 66.7 million bags, according to Fresh Cup and Global Coffee Report. Fresh Cup also reported that Rabobank expects 73.3 million bags, while it cited Comexim at 71.1 million bags. Separately, trading firm EISA put Brazil’s 2026/27 production even higher at 75.8 million bags, according to DatamarNews.
The differences in outlook have prompted some growers to voice caution. Speaking to Fresh Cup about the coming harvest in Brazil’s coffee heartland of Minas Gerais, Juliana Paulino, president of the Coffee Growers Association in Southwestern Minas Gerais, said: “The harvest will be good. It will not be bigger than in 2020, but it will be good.” Fresh Cup reported that Paulino’s comments challenge the more aggressive forecasts from CONAB, CTA, Comexim, and Rabobank.
Despite the debate over final volumes, Brazilian exporters are already moving significant quantities. The Brazilian Coffee Exporters’ Council (Cecafé) reported that coffee exports in April 2026 totaled 3.122 million bags, up 0.6% year on year, while revenue fell 17.7% to US$1.109 billion, according to Tridge. Tridge attributed the revenue decline to lower international prices.
Looking ahead to the new season, EISA estimated that Brazil could ship around 50 million bags of green coffee in the crop year running from July 2026 to June 2027, compared with the previous record of 46.3 million bags in 2024, DatamarNews reported. DatamarNews also noted that Brazilian coffee stocks held in consuming countries are at historically low levels.
