Coffee futures and freight costs are climbing together as tight exchange inventories, weather‑hit origins and tariff‑driven shipping combine to spotlight a market where nearby supply looks strained even while some official forecasts still point to ample crops ahead.
On June 29, robusta coffee for July delivery in London closed at $3,817 per ton, up 4.9% or $177 from the previous week, while the September contract rose 1% to $3,627 per ton, according to vietnam.vn. In New York, arabica for July settled at 286.75 US cents per pound, a 4.2% weekly gain of 11.7 cents, and September rose 2% to 273.2 cents, vietnam.vn reported.
Price momentum accelerated at the start of this week. Barchart said the September 2026 arabica contract jumped 7.78% on June 30, with robusta up 4.47%, pushing both markets to 4.5‑month highs. Barchart also noted that ICE arabica inventories fell to 382,084 bags on June 26, the lowest level in around two and a quarter years, while ICE robusta stocks, though recovering to 4,053 lots by June 29, were coming off a two‑year low reached in mid‑May.
Weather has been a key part of the tightening picture. Heavy rainfall is delaying Brazil’s harvest, with Somar Meteorologia reporting 31.3 millimeters of rain in Minas Gerais in the week ending June 28, equivalent to 1,956% of the historical average, Barchart said on June 29. In Indonesia, excessive rainfall has hurt coffee flowering and fruit development, according to a May 26 report from the USDA Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) via Daily Coffee News.
That Indonesia report forecasts green coffee production in the country to fall 8% to 11.38 million 60‑kilogram bags in 2026/27, with exports projected down 11% to 7 million bags and ending stocks down 11% to 671,000 bags. By contrast, vietnam.vn on June 29 said Indonesia’s coffee production is projected to decrease by about 30% compared with last year, underscoring uncertainty over how severe the downturn will be.
At the same time, some global balances still appear comfortable on paper. A December 18, 2025 update from USDA FAS cited by Barchart put world coffee production in 2025/26 at a record 178.848 million bags, with robusta output up 10.9% year‑on‑year to 83.333 million bags even as arabica fell 4.7% to 95.515 million. Barchart also reported that USDA FAS expects 2025/26 ending stocks to decline 5.4% to 20.148 million bags, while Rabobank has raised its estimate of the 2026/27 global arabica surplus to 9.5 million bags from 7 million.
Origin signals also reflect mixed conditions. Vietnam’s National Statistics Office data, cited by Barchart on June 29, show the country’s coffee exports from January to May 2026 up 7.9% year‑on‑year to 922,000 metric tons. USDA FAS has lifted its Vietnam 2025/26 production forecast to 31.7 million bags, with roughly 30.5 million bags of robusta, according to Báo Quốc Tế on June 30. Domestically, vietnam.vn reported on June 29 that Vietnamese coffee prices rose by 400–600 Vietnamese dong per kilogram last week to reach 90,000 dong, with farmers holding remaining stocks and selling limited quantities, leading to subdued trading.
Weather‑related risks extend beyond individual origins. Barchart reported on June 29 that the Japan Meteorological Agency confirmed El Niño conditions across the equatorial Pacific on June 10, while the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration estimated a 67% probability of a “Super El Niño” this year. Barchart said such conditions raise concerns about floods and droughts affecting coffee production in Asia and South America.
Logistics are adding another layer of tension. Báo Quốc Tế reported on June 30 that shipping rates from Asia to the United States and Europe have reached their highest levels since the Red Sea crisis, as companies build stockpiles amid widespread delays. In the same report, the outlet said US businesses are front‑loading imports ahead of new US Section 301 tariffs expected after a 10% global tariff expires on July 24, citing a proposal from the Office of the US Trade Representative to apply tariffs on 60 economies.
“Businesses are trying to get shipments into the US before that deadline,” Michael Aldwell of Kuehne+Nagel told Báo Quốc Tế, describing how the tariff timetable is intensifying demand for space on Asia–US routes and contributing to the current spike in ocean freight rates.
Against this backdrop, Barchart noted on June 29 that ICE coffee inventories have been declining over the past three months, a pattern that has been supportive for prices even as official forecasts from USDA FAS and Rabobank still point to record or surplus supply on a global scale.
