Coffee futures extended their recent slide at the start of the week, with benchmark arabica and robusta contracts under pressure as major agencies flag larger crops and wider surpluses despite unusually tight exchange stocks.
On 22 June, front-month Coffee (KC) fell 1.46% to $261.91 in what TradersUnion described as a moderately volatile session trading below key moving averages. The same day, September arabica (KCU26) settled 0.30% lower and July robusta (RMN26) closed down 1.40%, according to a market report from TradingView/Barchart.
Technical indicators compiled by TradersUnion show KC/USD trading below its hourly 20-, 50- and 200-period moving averages, with Ichimoku resistance at $264.36 and multiple oscillators in deeply oversold territory. The same note estimated an expected trading range of $257.35–$266.47 over the next two to three days and put the probability of an upward move at 25%. “I remain defensive on KC — unless it recovers above $264.36, any upside attempt looks fragile,” TradersUnion analyst Anton Kharitonov said.
Market commentary from Barchart on 15 June said bears “hold the near-term technical advantage” in arabica, noting that September coffee had recently hit a 1.5-year low and highlighting a downside price objective of $2.0000, with chart support at $2.5000 and resistance at $270.35. TradingView/Barchart separately reported that on 9 June the nearest-futures arabica contract fell to a 19‑month low, while robusta slid to a two‑month low.
Fund positioning has shifted alongside the price slide. A 23 June market update from CocoaIntel said non-commercial investors moved from a net-long to a net-short stance in coffee futures, with net selling of 3,557 contracts as of 9 June, which the publication described as reflecting a more defensive approach.
These moves come as supply expectations strengthen. Citing the United States Department of Agriculture’s Foreign Agricultural Service (USDA FAS), TradingView/Barchart reported that world coffee production in 2025/26 is projected at a record 178.848 million bags. Within that total, arabica output is forecast to fall 4.7% to 95.515 million bags while robusta production is seen rising 10.9% to 83.333 million bags, with Brazil at 63 million bags (down 3.1%) and Vietnam at 30.8 million bags (up 6.2%). Ending stocks for 2025/26 are projected to fall 5.4% to 20.148 million bags.
Looking further ahead, TradingView/Barchart also cited a separate USDA FAS forecast for Brazil’s 2026/27 coffee crop at a record 71.9 million bags, up 14% year-on-year. In the same report, Rabobank increased its estimate for the global arabica surplus in 2026/27 to 9.5 million bags, from 7.0 million bags previously.
Vietnam’s contribution to supply has been expanding. TradingView/Barchart reported on 2 June that Vietnam’s coffee exports rose 17.5% year-on-year in 2025 to 1.58 million metric tonnes, with shipments in the first five months of 2026 up 7.9% year-on-year to 922,000 metric tonnes. The same report said Vietnam’s 2025/26 coffee production is projected to climb 6% year-on-year to a four‑year high of 1.76 million metric tonnes, equivalent to 29.4 million bags.
At the same time, certified exchange stocks remain relatively tight. TradingView/Barchart noted that arabica inventories monitored by ICE fell to a 2.25‑year low of 393,937 bags on 22 June, while robusta inventories dropped to a two‑year low of 3,631 lots on 15 May before rebounding to 4,032 lots in mid‑June.
Weather and logistics are also shaping sentiment. TradingView/Barchart said prices were under pressure on 22 June as drier weather in Brazil allowed the 2026 harvest to resume after earlier rain delays, and added that the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz has eased shipping disruptions in a way it described as bearish for coffee prices. CocoaIntel reported on 23 June that frost risks had emerged in Brazil’s southern Minas Gerais, Cerrado and São Paulo regions, while TradingView/Barchart cited the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) as assigning a 67% probability to a “Super El Niño” this year and relayed a commercial trader’s view that El Niño may delay rains in Brazil in September–October 2026, potentially hurting the 2026/27 crop.
Despite those weather concerns and historically low certified stocks, the combination of recent price weakness, larger projected crops in Brazil and Vietnam, and an increased global arabica surplus estimate from Rabobank means current market commentary across TradersUnion, Barchart, TradingView/Barchart and CocoaIntel remains focused on the downside risks in coffee futures.
