Arabica coffee futures slid on 7 May as traders responded to mounting forecasts for a bumper Brazilian 2026/27 crop, underscoring how diverging estimates for the world’s largest producer are rippling through global markets.
According to Barchart, July arabica on ICE closed down **10.60 points**, a drop of 3.73%, with the move explicitly linked to markets “pricing in a larger Brazilian coffee crop.” The same report noted that Vietnam’s robusta exports are “soaring,” adding further bearish pressure on robusta prices even as physical stocks on the ICE exchanges remain tight.
Behind Thursday’s price retreat lies an unusually wide range of Brazil crop forecasts from major institutions. Government agency Conab projects a record 2026/27 harvest of **66.2 million 60‑kg bags**, 17.1% higher than 2025/26. Its breakdown calls for 44.1 million bags of arabica, up 23.3%, and 22.1 million bags of robusta, up 6.4%.
Private forecasters are considerably more bullish. In March, brokerage and market‑intelligence firm StoneX lifted its Brazil 2026/27 estimate to **75.3 million bags**, 20.8% higher year on year, with 50.2 million bags of arabica (+37.5% YoY) and 25.1 million bags of robusta (‑2.8% YoY). On 7 May, a Barchart market recap cited commodity house Sucafina at **75.4 million bags** and Marex Group Plc at **75.9 million bags**, both framing that level as a record crop.
A separate farmer‑based survey conducted by Coffee Trading Academy and reported by Kelo places the 2026/27 harvest in between, at **71.4 million bags**, 11.5% larger than the previous season. That survey of 758 farmers pegs arabica output at 47.9 million bags, up 13.5% year on year, and robusta at 23.5 million bags, up 7.6%.
The Coffee Trading Academy survey also points to expanding capacity on the ground. Total coffee acreage was reported 2.97% higher than a year earlier, with arabica area up 2.7% and robusta up 3.6%. Fertilizer application rose 5.4% year on year, and 63.5% of surveyed farmers said off‑season rain had a major positive impact on their crop, according to the same Kelo report.
These competing Brazil estimates feed directly into the global balance sheets traders watch. In an April outlook, StoneX told Comunicaffe it expects world coffee production in 2026/27 to reach **182.5 million bags**, resulting in a surplus of **10 million bags**, which the report described as the largest in six years. The same forecast framed that surplus as a factor that is expected to dampen prices in 2026/27.
At the same time, short‑term supply signals remain mixed. Barchart noted that certified stocks on the ICE exchanges are low, with arabica inventories at a 2.5‑month low and robusta at a 16‑month low, even as Vietnam’s robusta shipments are described as “soaring.” Separately, the International Coffee Organization reported that global coffee exports in the latest period slipped 0.3% to **138.658 million bags**.
The 2026 Brazilian harvest is already under way. Valor International reported that picking began in late March and April and is expected to run through the end of September, with early field reports citing strong yields and larger bean sizes for the new crop.
