Arabica coffee futures have sunk to a 1.5-year low even as forecasters split by more than 9 million bags on how large Brazil’s 2026/27 crop will be, setting up a tense stand-off between government and private estimates that is reshaping the global supply outlook.
On 2 June, July arabica coffee (KCN26) closed down 1.40 cents, or 0.54%, at a 1.5-year nearest-futures low, according to analyst Rich Asplund at Barchart, while July ICE robusta (RMN26) gained 24 dollars, or 0.70%. Barchart reported that coffee prices have “ratcheted lower over the past five weeks amid an improved global supply outlook,” with futures having been “falling for months” as high Brazilian harvest expectations built, a trend also highlighted in a 2 June report from Fresh Cup.
Against that backdrop, Brazil’s official crop forecaster CONAB estimates the country’s 2026 coffee harvest at 66.7 million 60-kg bags, up 18% year-on-year, with arabica at 45.8 million bags and robusta at 20.9 million, Portos e Navios reported on 21 May. CONAB put Brazil’s total coffee area at 2.34 million hectares, of which 1.94 million hectares are in production, and calculated average productivity at 34.4 bags per hectare, a 13% increase versus the previous season, according to the same report.
Most private and trade houses see a much bigger crop. A May article in Cultivar Magazine said Hedgepoint Global Markets had revised its 2026/27 Brazilian coffee forecast to 75.8 million bags, split between 50.2 million bags of arabica and 25.6 million of robusta. Barchart cited Marex Group Plc at 75.9 million bags, Sucafina at 75.4 million, and StoneX at 75.3 million in March reports, while TradeVae noted that EISA, the Brazilian arm of ECOM, is also working with a 75.8 million bag figure.
Other forecasters sit between CONAB and the most bullish projections. A survey of 758 growers by Coffee Trading Academy (CTA), reported by Reuters via WTVB on 29 April, projected a 2026/27 Brazilian harvest of 71.4 million bags, up 12% from the previous season, with 47.9 million bags of arabica and 23.5 million bags of robusta. CTA found that 63.5% of farmers said off-season rain had a major positive impact and that fertilizer application rose 5.4% year-on-year. Comexim, cited in structured content from 11 March, projected the crop at 71.1 million bags, while Fresh Cup reported a 73.3 million bag estimate from Rabobank.
The divergence also appears in regional readings. Portos e Navios reported that CONAB expects Minas Gerais, Brazil’s largest arabica state, to produce 33.4 million bags in 2026, up 29.8% year-on-year. On 23 April, Valor International quoted state extension agency Emater-MG estimating Minas Gerais arabica production at 32 million bags, plus 650,000 bags of conilon, while Cerrado Coffee Growers Federation president Gláucio de Castro said Cerrado Mineiro alone, with 4,500 growers and 234,000 hectares, should reach about 6 million bags, slightly below its 2020 record of 7.7 million.
Analysts link these larger figures to field conditions. In Cultivar Magazine, Hedgepoint’s market intelligence analyst Laleska Moda said, “The favorable weather throughout the crop development, combined with the increased area and investments in management, resulted in coffee plantations in excellent condition and supported the revision of production figures for the 26/27 season.” Fresh Cup quoted researcher Fabiano Tristão of the Capixaba Institute saying “the crop is in very good condition” with “regular rainfall,” while Emater-MG’s state technical coordinator Sérgio Mário Regina told Valor International, “I have never seen the crop in such good condition.”
Some producer representatives, however, remain more restrained than the highest private estimates. In an interview with Valor International, Sincal director Marcelo Paterno said that if weather remains favorable, “the crop could perhaps reach 70 million bags,” citing strong bean filling and larger beans improving yield per bag, but added that “among producers, expectations are still for a harvest below that level.” Juliana Paulino, president of a coffee growers association in southwestern Minas Gerais, told Fresh Cup and Valor International that “the harvest will be good” but “will not be bigger than in 2020.”
The shifting Brazilian outlook is already being reflected in global balance sheets. On 12 March, Barchart reported that StoneX had raised its 2026/27 Brazil forecast to 75.3 million bags from 70.7 million previously and projected a 10 million bag global coffee surplus in 2026, compared with 1.8 million in 2025, describing it as the biggest surplus in six years. Valor International similarly cited Safras & Mercado, StoneX, and Hedgepoint pointing to a 10 million bag surplus in 2026, driven by a 20% increase in Brazilian output.
Despite the softening arabica price, some elements of the market remain tight. Barchart reported on 2 June that ICE arabica certified stocks had fallen to a 3.5-month low of 432,781 bags, while ICE robusta inventories were near a two-year low in May before edging up slightly by early June. Nasdaq noted that Volcafe still projects a global arabica deficit of 8.5 million bags for 2025/26, which would mark a fifth consecutive year of arabica deficits, even as Vietnam’s 2025/26 coffee production is projected to rise 6% to 1.76 million metric tons, or about 29.4 million bags, according to Barchart.
Looking to exports, TradeVae reported on 20 May that EISA director Carlos Santana expects Brazil could export about 50 million bags of green coffee in the crop year beginning July 2026, and that low inventories in consuming countries are contributing to strong demand for Brazilian shipments once the new crop moves into the pipeline.
