Brazil’s coffee production outlook has taken a hit, particularly for arabica beans, which are a staple in the country’s coffee exports. Recent estimates from Conab, Brazil’s national supply company, show a significant decrease in arabica production for 2025. The forecast predicts only about 35.15 million bags of arabica coffee, reflecting an 11.2% decline compared to the previous year. This drop is mainly due to tough weather conditions, including dry spells that affected the coffee plants’ flowering and fruit development.
Brazil’s arabica coffee production is set to decline significantly in 2025, impacted by adverse weather conditions and reduced acreage.
Arabica quality, while lower in quantity, shows some signs of positivity. Some regions have experienced favorable growing conditions, allowing them to produce good-quality arabica fruits despite the overall decline in production. The country’s biennial production cycle also plays a role, with 2025 being an “off-year,” leading to naturally reduced output. In addition, the area planted with arabica coffee has diminished due to pruning and other agricultural practices, which impacted the yield potential by around 1.4%.
On the other hand, there is robust growth in the production of robusta coffee, also known as Conilon. Conab estimates that robusta production could reach a record high of about 20.1 million bags, marking a remarkable 37.2% increase year-on-year. This surge may help balance out some of the losses seen in arabica output. Positive climatic conditions favored the robusta beans, ensuring strong flowering and fruiting.
The shift toward an increased robusta share represents a change in Brazil’s coffee landscape, highlighting the global coffee culture that adapts to shifting supply chains and market demands. In general, robusta is expected to account for a larger portion of the country’s coffee output as arabica’s share dwindles.
As these dynamics unfold, coffee market stakeholders will be closely monitoring both arabica and robusta trends to strategize and adapt to the changing environment. The implications of these shifts could affect coffee blends and market demands worldwide.
