Pressure weighed on the Arabica market Monday after Brazil’s record-breaking coffee harvest raced toward completion. By late July, 85% of the Arabica crop was in the bins, up from 67% three weeks earlier. Robusta fields moved even faster, hitting 98% done. Cooxupe, Brazil’s biggest coffee group, said its growers were 74% finished by August 1. USDA’s latest forecast for 2025/26 expects total Brazilian coffee production to rise 0.5% year-over-year despite weather setbacks, adding to global supply expectations. Analysts note that ICE-monitored arabica coffee inventories rose to 842,223 bags, keeping available supply near five-month highs and further pressuring prices.
Brazil storms toward a record close: 85% of Arabica bagged by late July, 98% of Robusta already off the trees.
Coffee price trends turned lower as the extra beans reached the docks. September Arabica futures slid to a 7.5-month low in mid-July, and some contracts touched a 1.25-year bottom. The drop was about 3-4% across the board. Prices bounced a little in August, but stayed weak because traders still expect plenty of supply.
Harvest challenges came from the sky. Hail pounded parts of Minas Gerais early in the season. Drought, odd rains, and brief cold snaps also hurt fields. These weather issues cut late-August forecasts for next year’s Arabica crop by 5.7%. Even so, total Brazilian output is still seen rising 0.5% from last year.
Brazil is the world’s top Arabica grower, so its crop size moves global cups. Vietnam, the big Robusta source, shipped 4.1% more coffee in the initial half of 2025. ICE stocks show the split: Robusta piles rose to a 10.75-month high, while Arabica stores fell to a 3-month low. Talk of a possible 50% U.S. tariff on Brazilian beans added extra worry. Brazilian groups met U.S. trade staff to ask for coffee to be left off any tax list.
Money flows added to the swings. Net-short bets on Robusta later sparked a sharp bounce in those futures. Each time Arabica tried a nine-day climb, profit-taking quickly knocked it back down. Traders now watch September rains in Brazil; steady showers are needed to keep next year’s crop on track.
