Brazil’s next coffee harvest is shaping up as a record crop, but major forecasters disagree on just how big it will be, even as futures prices remain well above historical levels. A new producer survey by Coffee Trading Academy (CTA) pegs the 2026/27 crop at 71.4 million 60‑kg bags, while Brazil’s government crop bureau CONAB projects 66.2 million bags for the 2026 cycle.
The CTA figure, reported by Reuters via KELO, points to an 11.5 % increase from the previous season and would mark Brazil’s largest coffee crop on record. According to the same report, the CTA survey covered 758 farmers across all producing regions in Brazil and breaks down the total into 47.9 million bags of arabica, up 13.5 % year‑on‑year, and 23.5 million bags of robusta, up 7.6 %.
CONAB’s February crop update, published by Valor International, also describes the 2026 Brazilian coffee crop as heading for a record, but at a lower level of 66.2 million bags, 17.1 % above the previous cycle. CONAB reports that Brazil’s coffee‑growing area has expanded 4.1 % to 1.9 million hectares, with expected productivity of 34.2 bags per hectare, up 12.4 % from last season.
While CTA and CONAB diverge on total output, both link higher volumes to favorable growing conditions. The CTA survey, cited by Reuters via KELO, notes that 63.5 % of farmers reported off‑season rainfall had a major positive impact on their crops and that total coffee acreage rose 2.97 % year‑on‑year, with fertilizer use increasing 5.4 % compared with the prior season. In a separate report, CONAB crop‑monitoring manager Fabiano Vasconcellos is quoted by Valor International saying, “Rainfall did in fact become more frequent from the fourth quarter (of 2025) onward, which favored the main flowering periods in September and October, despite some reports of unevenness.”
The CTA projection has also shifted over time. According to the Reuters piece carried by KELO, the new 71.4 million‑bag figure is higher than a November 2025 survey that put the crop at 69 million bags, but below a July 2025 estimate of 73.7 million bags. Both CTA and CONAB describe their current numbers as records for Brazil, yet their estimates differ by more than 5 million bags.
Despite these record‑level supply expectations, arabica prices have stayed firm. Valor International reports that arabica futures for March delivery slipped just 0.08 % on the day of CONAB’s February update, to $3.0840 per pound. On April 29, as the CTA survey results circulated, Comunicaffe noted that the ICE arabica contract for July delivery closed unchanged at 290.70 cents per pound, while ICE robusta fell 1.1 % to $3,442 per pound.
An analysis in The Rio Times states that arabica futures remain above $3.00 per pound “despite this record supply outlook,” and describes this situation as a “classic value trap” as Brazilian farmers withhold beans from the market and create a short‑term squeeze. That article also cites Rabobank’s expectation that arabica futures will trade in a range of $2.50–$3.00 per pound by late 2026.
Price moves over the past year have been volatile. AInvest, in a March report on Brazil’s 2026 coffee surge, notes that coffee futures fell sharply from 2025 highs above $4.40 per pound to a 15‑month low and highlights a forecast coffee‑futures price range of $2.50–$3.00 per pound. The same piece says a stronger Brazilian real has increased the local‑currency cost of coffee for international buyers.
The CTA‑surveyed crop corresponds to Brazil’s 2026/27 season, which Reuters via KELO reports will officially start in July 2026. According to The Rio Times, the main harvest period for that crop is scheduled to run from May through September 2026, while Valor International says CONAB plans to release three further coffee‑crop surveys over the course of the year.
