Brazil is heading for what multiple forecasters say will be a record coffee harvest in 2026/27, but a new farmer survey has widened an already sharp split over just how large the crop will be and how much coffee the world will have to absorb.
A survey by the Coffee Trading Academy (CTA) of 758 growers across all producing regions points to a 2026/27 Brazilian crop of 71.4 million 60‑kg bags, up 11.5 % from the previous season, according to a report by Reuters published via KELO‑AM on 29 April 2026. The article said Arabica output in the survey is projected at 47.9 million bags, 13.5 % higher year on year, while Robusta is estimated at 23.5 million bags, a 7.6 % increase.
The same Reuters/KELO‑AM report noted that 63.5 % of farmers surveyed by CTA said off‑season rain had a major positive impact on their crops, and that fertilizer application rose 5.4 % compared with the prior season. Total coffee‑producing acreage expanded 2.97 % year on year in the survey, with Arabica area up 2.7 % and Robusta area up 3.6 %.
CTA’s 71.4‑million‑bag figure sits in the middle of a wide range of pre‑existing forecasts. Brazil’s official supply agency CONAB has projected 66.2 million 60‑kg bags for the 2026 crop, 17.1 % higher than 2025, according to a 6 February 2026 report from NewKerala. In contrast, commodities consultancy Safras & Mercado has estimated 75.65 million bags for 2026/27, with Arabica just under 50 million bags, up 29 % year on year, and Robusta at 25.70 million bags, down 1.2 %, Comunicaffe reported on 14 April 2026.
Other institutions also diverge. A 17 April 2026 article in Riot Times said brokerage StoneX forecasts around 75 million bags (75.3 million) for the Brazilian 2026 crop. In the same Comunicaffe report cited above, Brazil’s statistics agency IBGE was reported to have revised its forecast to 65.1 million bags, up 13.1 % year on year.
The conflicting projections have prompted some market participants to question the lower end of the range. In comments carried by Riot Times on 17 April 2026, Pine Agronegócios partner Vicente Zotti said, “Although CONAB’s figure makes little sense when considering the balance between production and exports, projections for the arabica crop (44.1 million bags) are in line with what much of the market expects, as the most optimistic estimates point to 46 million bags.” The 44.1‑million‑bag Arabica figure Zotti referred to comes from CONAB’s detailed breakdown published by Valor International on 6 February 2026.
Valor International reported that CONAB expects total Brazilian coffee productivity in 2026 to reach 34.2 bags per hectare, a 12.4 % year‑on‑year increase, and projects Robusta output at 22.1 million bags, up 6.4 %. The same report said CONAB attributed these productivity gains to favorable weather, technological adoption and better inputs.
Disagreement over Brazil’s crop size feeds directly into diverging expectations for the global balance sheet. A 11 March 2026 article from AInvest reported that Rabobank expects a global coffee surplus of 7–10 million bags in 2026/27, while Sucden Financial projects a surplus between 4.7 million and 5.3 million bags. In the same AInvest report, StoneX was cited as anticipating global coffee output of around 180 million bags, compared with a worldwide demand outlook of 173.9 million bags for 2026/27 from the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA).
Inventory data and price expectations have started to reflect these supply‑heavy scenarios. Riot Times reported on 17 April 2026 that ICE‑certified Arabica inventories rose to 585,621 bags in mid‑March, a six‑month high, while ICE Robusta inventories fell to 4,257 lots, a two‑month low. In the same article, AInvest cited Rabobank as expecting Arabica futures to settle between $2.50 and $3.00 per pound by late 2026, and AInvest quoted Vicente Zotti in Valor International on 6 February 2026 as saying that Pine Agronegócios’ pricing model indicated July coffee contracts could fall toward the $2.50 range as Brazil’s harvest gets underway.
According to Reuters/KELO‑AM, Brazil’s 2026/27 coffee crop officially starts in July 2026, and Valor International has reported that the harvest of the new crop is expected to begin in late March to early April 2026, intensifying from May through July.
