Volatility now grips the coffee market as Arabica prices, after skyrocketing to $3.48 a pound in January, have slipped from February’s record of 440.85 USd/lb. Price forecasts suggest a bumpy ride. The World Bank sees a 15% drop in 2026 after a 50% jump this year. Traders track every truck because any glitch in the supply chain can punch fresh holes in already tight stock.
Stocks remain thin even though global output crept up to 173 million bags for 2024–25. That’s still below the 2020–21 harvest. Brazil’s fields baked under sun that showed little mercy, cutting yields. Colombia’s extra beans could help later. Recent research confirms that optimal growing regions play a critical role in determining coffee quality, particularly in areas like 1,200-1,800 meters altitude which produce the best Arabica.
Global output inches to 173 million bags yet still trails 2020–21, Brazil scorched, Colombia hopes 나중
Climate change keeps pouring trouble into the picture. Ongoing droughts shrink every bag possible. Rains came late in key regions. The next crop now depends on weather that no price forecast can fully pin down. Traders brace for extra swings. Forecasts point to Robusta prices adding nearly 25 percent in 2025 despite April’s retreat.
In-house roasting lowers raw-bean cost by up to 50%, giving forward-thinking cafés a hidden buffer against the turmoil.
Supply chain bosses reroute ships and stash beans in safer ports, yet storms and low river levels still slow cargo. Trucks burn more fuel thanks to higher oil prices.
Political fights and tariffs add stress. Rising interest rates nudge up the cost of credit for shipping and storage. Currency shifts in Brazil and Vietnam ripple through the entire chain. A small political flare-up or another port slowdown can send costs flying in hours. Shippers say they lock insurance at ever-higher rates.
Shops in many cities already pay almost double for beans compared with last winter. Some chains add twenty cents to a cup. Others cut staff hours. Stores gamble on mix blends to keep menus short. Losses widen when cold spikes and price spikes hit at once.
Hedge desks within big roasters roll over futures each week to stop margins from shrinking further. Buyers now prepare for a quieter spell. Analysts watch crop bloom in Brazil. If rain returns, prices may drift toward two dollars fifty by late 2025. For now, wallets stay tight.
