Coffee markets weathered sharp turbulence in July 2025 as global prices plummeted 11.8% from June, driven by improving supplies and economic jitters. Supply chain dynamics shifted as Brazil’s 2025/26 harvest progressed steadily, reaching 35% completion by early June—in line with its five-year average. Vietnam also signaled higher robusta output, adding to market pressures. Certified Robusta stocks surged 35.8% to 1.18 million bags in London warehouses, reflecting ample supplies.
July 2025 saw global coffee prices plunge 11.8% amid expanding Brazil and Vietnam supplies and economic uncertainty, pressuring markets.
Meanwhile, economic volatility flared with new US import tariffs and global trade uncertainties, spooking investors and traders. Though prices remained 9.6% above July 2024 levels, the sudden drop erased much of 2025’s earlier gains.
All major coffee categories saw double-digit declines. Colombian Milds fell 10.5% to 322.37 cents per pound, while Other Milds dipped 10.4% to 325.50 cents. Brazilian Naturals dropped 12.3% to 297.04 cents, and Robustas plunged 14.8% to 167.19 cents—their steepest monthly loss. Futures mirrored the slump: New York arabica contracts fell 12.3% to 289.17 cents, and London robusta futures tumbled 16.3% to 153.43 cents.
Improved harvests eased supply worries. Brazil’s arabica production is projected to rise 0.5% to 65 million bags despite heavy rains delaying some harvesting. Vietnam eyes a 6.9% output jump to 31 million robusta bags. Rainstorms in Brazil’s Minas Gerais region enhanced crop prospects, helping cooperatives like Cooxupe maintain harvesting rates near 2024 levels. Year-to-date global green bean exports fell 3.0% compared to the previous coffee year, mirroring shifting trade flows and inventory adjustments.
Analysts noted surpluses loomed for 2024/25, but stressed stocks in key markets still haven’t recovered from prior shortages.
Trade disruptions deepened the selloff. US tariff announcements rattled markets, while weaker economic data fueled fears of slowing demand. Traders hedged against uncertainty, accelerating price drops. Still, consumption trends stayed strong, leaving some experts cautious about labeling the slump a long-term shift.
ICE Futures US announced a new Coffee “C” Metric contract starting September 8, expanding deliverable origins to Brazil, Colombia, Vietnam, and others. The move aims to align with shifting trade patterns but didn’t offset July’s market pessimism.
Though prices rebounded slightly from July’s low of 252.46 cents, volatility’s expected to persist as supply and demand forces clash. For now, producers and buyers brace for more turbulence ahead.
