Vietnam’s coffee exports hit 954,000 tonnes in the initial half of 2025, earning $5.45 billion—a 5.3% volume increase and 67.5% value jump compared to 2024. Prices soared to $5,705 per tonne by mid-July, up 59% yearly, driven by global supply shortages and Indonesia’s severe storms disrupting Robusta supplies. Yet climbing costs and reliance on volatile markets cast uncertainty over future growth.
Vietnam’s 2025 coffee exports surged 67.5% to $5.45B, driven by supply gaps and Indonesia’s storms, yet rising costs and volatility cloud growth prospects.
Vietnam’s production is rising—2025/26 forecasts predict 31 million 60-kg bags, up 7%—thanks to better farming and replanting efforts. Robusta dominates, making up 30 million bags, while Arabica stays a fraction of output. Meanwhile, Brazil’s Arabica production dropped 6.4% in 2025/26 due to prolonged drought, further tightening global supplies and amplifying reliance on Vietnamese Robusta.
But infrastructure strains and climate risks loom as Indonesia’s weather chaos exacerbates global supply gaps. Europe remains critical: Germany doubled its purchases, Italy and Spain climbed, but shifts in U.S. tariffs redirected buyers to Vietnamese beans, lifting U.S. imports by 76%. However, the sustainability of these tariff-driven shifts remains uncertain as ongoing U.S.-Vietnam trade negotiations could alter market dynamics if Washington demands stricter compliance on labor or environmental standards.
The push toward processed coffee—like soluble and roasted products—offers hope, with exports expected to hit 3.3 million bags in 2025/26. Asia’s demand grew sharply: the Philippines paid $4,424 per ton, while China’s imports rose 22.9%.
Still, green beans make up 90% of exports, leaving Vietnam exposed to price swings. Global prices hit records, but speculators and reserve policies add volatility.
Indonesia’s storms worsened supply tightness, propelling Vietnam’s prices and market share—now 38% of global Robusta. Yet high costs risk pricing out buyers, and Europe’s economic sluggishness could dampen spending.
New markets like Algeria and Mexico surged, but their small scales can’t offset broader risks. Vietnam’s $7.5 billion export target for 2025 looks achievable, yet sustainability hinges on balancing growth with stability. As storms rage and markets tighten, the coffee boom’s next phase remains fragile.
