As US sanctions on Russia ripple through global trade, Brazil’s heavy reliance on Russian fertilizers—roughly one-third of its supply—has left farmers bracing for potential shortages. Brazil imported $3.7 billion worth of Russian fertilizers in 2024, with shipments rising nearly 30% in early 2025. With no quick alternatives, even minor disruptions could hit soybean and corn production, key pillars of its agricultural economy. The sanctions impact has already triggered fears of fertilizer scarcity, reviving memories of 2022 when Latin American farmers panic-bought supplies after Russia invaded Ukraine.
The region’s agricultural sector faces a cascade of risks. Global grain, fuel, and fertilizer costs soared after the Ukraine war, squeezing farmers amid currency volatility and disrupted insurance contracts. Peru’s government declared a 120-day state of emergency to aid its agriculture sector, highlighting the severity of the crisis. Though fertilizer prices had climbed earlier due to China’s energy crisis and shipping bottlenecks, sanctions magnified uncertainty. Crop protection products also spiked, driven more by inflation than sanctions—but deeper strains loom.
Latin American nations comply with UN sanctions but remain indirectly exposed as US and EU measures squeeze suppliers and buyers.
Food scarcity concerns persist despite Latin America’s role as a top global food producer. In recent years, 41 million people in the region faced hunger, including in agricultural powerhouses like Brazil and Argentina. Colombia, reliant on Russia for 25% of its fertilizer imports, risks destabilizing its coffee and flower sectors—critical exports to US markets. Lower-income groups struggle most, even as exports of berries, avocados, beef, and other goods surge north. The US now depends heavily on Mexico, Peru, and Nicaragua for these products, with Peru overtaking Chile in blueberry exports.
Yet disruptions from sanctions could fracture this supply chain, threatening both regional food security and US imports.
Innovation offers a partial fix. Farmers, governments, and companies are exploring alternatives like low-carbon farming and new fertilizer methods to enhance resilience. Seed certification and sustainable practices could ease pressure, but progress is slow.
Meanwhile, Latin American leaders must balance sanctions compliance with keeping farms running—a tough act as political tensions and enforcement risks cloud trade. Without solutions, the intersection of geopolitics and agriculture could leave fields barren and tables empty, reshaping food systems far beyond the Americas.
