A sharp jump in arabica coffee futures on 30 June has put global buyers on alert, as heavy rains in Brazil’s key growing region intersect with already low certified stocks in New York.
According to Perfect Daily Grind, arabica contracts on the Intercontinental Exchange climbed 6.71% in a single session to reach 4.5‑month highs, the largest one‑day gain since 2022. On the same day, robusta futures rose 2.64%, underscoring broad supply concerns across both major species.
The price surge came as Brazilian weather service Somar Meteorologia reported that Minas Gerais, Brazil’s largest arabica‑producing state, received 1,956% of its historical average rainfall for the week. Perfect Daily Grind reported that the torrential rain has halted the coffee harvest in parts of the region and raised concerns about bean quality and delayed deliveries.
At the same time, exchange‑monitored inventories have been shrinking. Perfect Daily Grind noted that certified arabica stocks held by ICE fell to a 2.25‑year low of 377,465 bags on 30 June, a backdrop that leaves less buffer for roasters and traders relying on exchange coffee for nearby supply.
Market participants are also watching broader climate signals. Citing traders and data from the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), Perfect Daily Grind reported a 63% probability of a strong so‑called “Godzilla” El Niño event. According to that report, traders are concerned that such an event could delay Brazil’s flowering rains in September and October 2026, with implications for the following crop.
While those El Niño expectations relate to a future season, Perfect Daily Grind linked the 30 June move directly to the combination of extreme rainfall in Minas Gerais and the multi‑year low in ICE inventories, with both factors heightening supply anxiety in the near term.
For robusta, Perfect Daily Grind indicated that the 2.64% increase on 30 June added to an already elevated price environment driven by tight supplies in previous months. The latest move leaves buyers of both arabica and robusta navigating higher futures curves at the same time as physical shipments from Brazil’s current harvest face disruption.
Perfect Daily Grind reported that traders are now closely following the pace of Brazil’s resumed harvesting once weather conditions improve, as well as any further changes in ICE certified stock levels, to gauge whether the current price strength reflects a short‑lived weather shock or a more persistent squeeze on exportable coffee.
