A sharp rally in coffee futures at the end of June is highlighting a market caught between multi‑year‑low inventories and forecasts for a record Brazilian crop, as heavy rains slow the country’s harvest and tighten short‑term supply.
On June 24, 2026, September arabica coffee and July robusta on ICE both closed at six‑week highs, with arabica up 0.45% and robusta 3.55%, according to Barchart. Over the ten trading sessions ending June 24, arabica futures rallied about 15%, CocoaIntel reported, after having fallen to a 19‑month low for nearest‑futures on June 9 amid expectations of a bumper global crop.
Barchart attributed the late‑June move to a sequence of cold fronts bringing more than 50 millimeters of rain across southern Brazilian coffee regions, delaying fieldwork and constraining immediate export availability. Meteorologist Climatempo, cited by Barchart, confirmed another cold front with similar rainfall expected through that week, further limiting harvest activity.
The delays are visible in numbers from Brazilian cooperative Cooxupé, one of the country’s largest coffee exporters. Cooxupé’s harvest reached 12% of its area by June 5, 2026, below 13.7% in 2025 and 13.6% in 2024, according to Portal Máquinas Agrícolas. By June 19, progress had risen to 20.1%, the weakest level for the period since 2022, reported Fronteira Econômica and Canal Pecuarista.
At the same time, exchange‑monitored inventories have thinned. ICE arabica stocks fell to a 2.25‑year low of 388,956 bags on June 24, Barchart said, while CocoaIntel noted that stocks had slipped below 390,000 bags after another daily withdrawal. ICE robusta inventories dropped to a two‑year low of 3,631 lots in mid‑May before recovering modestly to 4,032 lots by June 18, according to Barchart.
This near‑term tightness contrasts with increasingly generous supply projections for the 2026/27 season. On June 3, the USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service forecast Brazil’s 2026/27 coffee crop at a record 71.9 million bags, up 14% year on year, with arabica at 47.5 million bags and robusta at 24.4 million, Comunicaffe reported. Private forecasts are even higher: StoneX projected 75.3 million bags, while exporter EISA estimated 75.8 million bags earlier in the year, Comunicaffe and TradeVae reported.
Other institutions show the range of opinions. Brazil’s official supply agency Conab pegs the crop at 66.7 million bags, and statistics agency IBGE at 64.1 million bags, both cited by Comunicaffe. Marex Group and Sucafina each see the 2026/27 harvest above 75 million bags, at 75.9 million and 75.4 million respectively. Meanwhile, Rabobank raised its estimate of the 2026/27 global arabica surplus to 9.5 million bags from 7.0 million, according to Barchart.
Field research is underpinning some of the higher private estimates. After revisiting farms, StoneX field specialist João Pena said that “fruit setting was higher than forecast”, which contributed to an upward revision of the firm’s crop estimate, according to Comunicaffe. StoneX analyst Leonardo Rossetti added that although some regions are below maximum potential, the 2026/27 harvest represents “a significant recovery compared to the previous season”.
The broader global balance sheet is also pointing to larger supplies. A bi‑annual USDA FAS report from December 2025 projected world 2025/26 coffee production at a record 178.848 million bags, with arabica output falling 4.7% year on year to 95.515 million bags but robusta rising 10.9% to 83.333 million, and ending stocks declining 5.4% to 20.148 million bags, according to Barchart.
Yet even as production expands, stocks in consuming countries remain “at historically low levels” following recent shortfalls in major producers, EISA director Carlos Santana said, as reported by TradeVae. TradeVae also noted that Brazil’s coffee shipments so far in the current crop year are significantly below last season, while CocoaIntel reported that export revenues have stayed stable because of elevated prices.
Between delayed Brazilian harvest progress, low certified stocks and a wide gap among crop forecasts, the late‑June rally is drawing attention to a market where short‑term tightness and longer‑term surplus projections are pulling arabica and robusta prices in opposite directions.
