Brazilian coffee exports fell by 18% in the first eleven months of the 2025/26 crop year, but export revenue remained almost unchanged as high prices and cautious selling by farmers offset the lower volumes, according to a June 24 analysis from Cepea reported by Agro em Campo and other Brazilian outlets.
From July 2025 through May 2026, Brazil shipped 35.4 million 60-kg bags of coffee, down from 43 million bags in the same period of the 2024/25 crop, Cepea’s report using trade data from exporter council Cecafé showed, as cited by Agro em Campo, Conexão Safra, Folha Estado and CNN Brasil.
Despite the drop in shipped volume, export earnings between July and May reached US$ 13.6 billion, just US$ 0.1 billion below the US$ 13.7 billion recorded a year earlier, the same outlets reported, citing Cepea. According to CNN Brasil’s coverage of the study, Cepea researchers said this result “reflete o efeito dos preços elevados do grão ao longo da safra 2025/26, que compensaram, em grande medida, a queda no volume exportado”—in other words, high prices largely compensated for the smaller physical exports.
Cepea’s analysis, summarized by Agro em Campo and Conexão Safra, indicated that Brazilian coffee growers remained well-capitalized thanks to these elevated prices and therefore adopted a conservative selling posture, with no urgency to liquidate remaining stocks. Multiple reports noted that this stance limited the volume available for export even as the season progressed.
At the same time, the 2026/27 harvest accelerated in May 2026, spurring new forward sales but not yet translating into additional shipments. Commenting on this dynamic, Cepea researchers stated in coverage by CNN Brasil and agribusiness outlet Brasilagro that “esse movimento dificilmente se traduz em embarques imediatos, uma vez que o café recém-colhido ainda requer tempo de preparo e beneficiamento antes de estar apto para exportação em volumes expressivos.” Newly picked coffee, they emphasized, must be dried, prepared and processed before it can move in large export lots.
Looking ahead to the supply base behind these exports, RaboResearch estimated Brazil’s 2026/27 coffee production at 73.3 million bags, comprising 46.7 million bags of arabica and 26.6 million bags of robusta, according to CNN Brasil’s June 24 report on the Cepea study. In a separate note highlighted by Brasilagro, risk management firm Hedgepoint said it did not expect the 2026/27 crop to be directly affected by current climate phenomena, but warned that a rainy autumn and winter could delay harvesting and bring market volatility.
Cepea researchers, as cited by Agro em Campo, Conexão Safra, Folha Estado and CNN Brasil, stated that the first effects of sales from the new 2026/27 crop are likely to begin appearing in Brazil’s June 2026 export statistics, with shipments gradually increasing thereafter as post-harvest processing advances.
