Coffee futures jumped on 21 May 2026 as traders rushed to cover short positions on rising El Niño concerns, even as a cluster of major forecasts continues to call for a record Brazilian crop and a global surplus in the year ahead.
According to Barchart, July arabica coffee on ICE New York closed up 5.10 cents, or 1.90%, while July robusta on ICE Europe gained 71 dollars, or 2.13%, on the day. Barchart reported that the move was driven by short covering after fresh weather headlines, following a period in which arabica had fallen to a one-and-a-half-year low on 19 May amid an improved supply outlook.
The weather narrative has been fuelled by projections from the NOAA Climate Prediction Center, which estimates an 82% probability that El Niño will emerge between May and July 2026 and a 96% chance it will persist through the December 2026 to February 2027 period. Barchart cited commercial traders who say such an El Niño event may delay critical rains in Brazil in September and October, when flowering occurs, raising the risk of damage to the 2026/27 crop.
At the same time, a range of crop surveys and analyst models point toward abundant Brazilian supply. A farmer survey by Coffee Trading Academy, reported by Reuters via KELO-AM, expects Brazil’s 2026/27 coffee crop to reach 71.4 million bags, an 11.5% year-on-year increase and a record level. Within that figure, the survey pegs arabica output at 47.9 million bags, up 13.5% from the previous season, and robusta at 23.5 million bags, up 7.6%.
Other forecasters are even more bullish. Barchart reports that Marex Group Plc, Sucafina, and StoneX have each raised their 2026/27 Brazilian crop projections to record territory, at 75.9 million, 75.4 million, and 75.3 million bags respectively. In its harvest update, Sucafina breaks down its estimate as 49.4 million bags of arabica, up 26% year on year, and 26 million bags of robusta, down 0.3%.
Farm-level observations in Brazil largely align with these higher projections. In an interview with *Valor International* cited in the dataset, Sincal director Marcelo Paterno said that if weather remains favourable, the crop could “perhaps reach 70 million bags” because bean filling is strong and larger beans improve yield per bag, while adding that producers generally expect a harvest below that level. In a separate harvest report, Sucafina Brasil field research manager Romulo Bueno said the “uniform ripening” seen across many regions “should support excellent cup quality” and noted that screen size development is trending above average.
Beyond Brazil, StoneX projects that global coffee production will reach 182.5 million bags in 2026/27, with consumption at 172.5 million bags, implying a surplus of 10 million bags. Comunicaffe, citing StoneX, describes this as the largest surplus in six years, contrasting with tight visible stocks in some certified warehouses.
On the physical side, Barchart reports that ICE arabica inventories fell to a three-month low of 451,225 bags on 21 May, while ICE robusta stocks touched a two-year low of 3,631 lots on 15 May before recovering to a five-week high by 21 May. Brazil’s green coffee exports in April 2026 were 2.76 million bags, down 1.3% from a year earlier, according to exporter group Cecafe as reported by Barchart.
Not all analysts are convinced that El Niño is already steering coffee prices. In an April article on Barchart, weather analyst Jim Roemer wrote, “No! El Niño has not officially formed yet and will not be a factor for months,” adding that it is “way too early to talk about El Niño and if there will be crop problems to global coffee this year” and that the market “did not rally because of dry weather in northern Brazil.” He described current conditions as El Niño-neutral with generally good global weather.
The NOAA Climate Prediction Center, in its May 14 ENSO Diagnostic Discussion, acknowledged “substantial uncertainty in the peak strength of El Niño,” even as it maintained high probabilities for its development and persistence into early 2027.
