As extreme weather hammers coffee-growing powerhouses Brazil and Vietnam, global prices rocketed to historic levels in early 2025. Arabica futures hit $4.40 per pound in February, soaring past 1977’s peak of $3.39. Supply chain breakdowns and market volatility intensified as droughts and heat slashed harvests in both nations, which produce over half the world’s coffee.
Though prices plunged 51% by July, experts warn instability’s here to stay. Coffee’s history of price swings—driven by crop failures or political chaos—has grown fiercer with climate change. The FAO reported a 38.8% global price jump in 2024, fueled by climate-driven shortages. Arabica rose 58%, Robusta 70%.
Indonesia’s shrinking output and Vietnam’s export limits deepened the crisis. Meteorologists link harsh weather to warming trends, predicting more extremes that could upend farming regions. Rising costs squeeze producers, too. Energy, fertilizer, and labor bills climbed, while tariffs on Brazilian exports threatened new spikes.
The EU’s deforestation rules forced farmers to overhaul practices, hiking expenses. Only 30% of global production currently meets certification standards as December 2025’s EUDR compliance deadline looms. International agencies now promote climate-resilient agricultural techniques to help farmers adapt, but implementation lags in critical regions. Small farms, which grow 80% of the world’s coffee, are hit hardest. Many can’t afford upgrades, risking quality declines or switching to hardier crops like cocoa. Global demand keeps surging, but production lags.
North America, Europe, and China’s thirst outpaces supply, keeping prices high despite July’s drop. Analysts say another bad harvest could ignite fresh chaos. With Brazil and Vietnam still battling unstable weather, the coffee industry faces a storm it can’t brew away.
