vietnam coffee production surge

Vietnam Coffee Boom: How Production Surge Could Reshape Global Market Dynamics

Vietnam’s coffee output soars to 31M bags, threatening global giants with Robusta. How will this reshape your morning brew? The storm is brewing.

Vietnam’s coffee production is surging, with forecasts predicting 31 million 60-kg bags for 2025/26—up from 29 million a year earlier. The boom is fueled by improved weather and high farmgate prices, which pushed farmers to invest in fertilizers and irrigation. Over 90% of Vietnam’s coffee is Robusta, a bitter bean favored for instant coffee, while arabica holds steady at 1 million bags. Traditional Ethiopian agroforestry systems preserve biodiversity, highlighting the importance of sustainable practices in coffee cultivation.

Vietnam’s coffee output is set to hit 31 million 60-kg bags in 2025/26, driven by rising farm investments and favorable weather, with Robusta dominating production.

Cultivated areas expanded to 730,000 hectares in 2024, with 92% ready for harvest, signaling long-term growth. Exports hit a record $4.2 billion in the opening five months of 2025, even though shipped volume dipped slightly to 736,000 metric tons. Prices soared due to global demand and Vietnam’s shift toward processed products like soluble and roasted coffee.

Total exports could reach 27 million bags in 2025/26, with Asia’s emerging markets driving consumption. Domestic consumption is projected to grow to 4.9 million bags by 2025/26, fueled by a burgeoning café culture and increased home brewing among younger consumers. Though raw beans still make up 90% of exports, processing capacity is rising—a trend that could enhance future profits.

The Central Highlands region, home to volcanic soil and seasonal rains ideal for Robusta, produces over 90% of Vietnam’s coffee. Provinces like Dak Lak and Lam Dong have expanded coffee fields despite competition from crops like durian. Harvested areas have grown steadily since 2013, aided by investments in replanting and higher-yielding trees.

Some 8% of current plantings aren’t yet harvestable, hinting at further output gains. Last year’s drought slashed production by 20%, but farmers rebounded quickly. High prices encouraged investments in irrigation and nutrients, lifting yields.

While erratic weather remains a risk, better planning has softened its impact. Domestic bean prices recently dropped to around ₫120,000 per kilogram as global supply fears eased. ICE-monitored robusta inventories surged to eight-month highs, underscoring shifting stock dynamics, but export revenues stayed strong.

Vietnam’s coffee sector is climbing the value chain. Processed exports are rising, with global brands eyeing its cheaper Robusta for blends and instant products. As production expands and processing grows, the country cements its role as a key player in reshaping coffee markets worldwide.

With output set to climb and demand soaring, Vietnam’s beans are brewing a stronger global presence.

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